Niraj ChaurasiyaBuilding systems under uncertainty

EPA Air-Quality Exploration

This research project used Python and EPA air-quality data to examine what changes when data collection is extended from monitoring toward explanatory or predictive modeling.

Current direction

Translating the distinction between monitoring and modeling into a broader systems-research question.

The problem

Monitoring can describe observed conditions, while modeling attempts to explain, estimate, or predict behavior. These activities require different assumptions and support different claims.

Why it matters

Confusing observation with explanation can lead researchers to make claims that exceed the evidence available in the data.

How it currently works

The present model

01

EPA air-quality measurements provide the observational data.

02

Python is used for cleaning, organizing, and visualizing data.

03

Monitoring and modeling are treated as different epistemic activities.

04

Assumptions are examined before explanatory claims are made.

Open investigation

Questions guiding the work

01

What can monitoring establish without a model?

02

What assumptions does modeling introduce?

03

How should missing or uneven measurements be interpreted?

Current understanding

What appears known—and what does not

Current understanding

What I presently understand

A dataset does not explain itself.

Monitoring and modeling support different kinds of conclusions.

Visualization can reveal patterns without establishing causality.

Latent uncertainty

What remains unresolved

How much environmental context is required for meaningful modeling?

Which variables are necessary for causal interpretation?

Development history

Project timeline

Research reflection

Documented the research process and methodological lessons.

Research presentation

Presented the distinction between Monitor Only and Monitor and Model.

Research program began

Started the ASRI Python and environmental data research track.

Related work

This project does not exist alone